June 2014 Visa Bulletin & Predictions on Priority Date Movement for Remainder of FY2014

As predicted, the employment-based third preference (EB-3) and family-based second preference (FB-2A) cutoff date for all countries will move backwards (retrogress) in June.  EB-3 China will retrogress six years from 10/01/2012 to 10/01/2006.

Recently, Mr. Charles Oppenheim, Chief of the Immigrant Visa Control Unit at DOS, provided the below predictions for cutoff date movement for the remainder of the fiscal year 2014 (FY2014):

EB-1:

  • It is still a little early in the fiscal year to know how many unused cases will drop down into EB-2. EB-1 usage is heavier this year than last year.

 

EB-2 India:

  • It is possible in August, but more likely in September, that India EB-2 will open at 1/1/2008 or perhaps later in 2008 (currently 11/15/2004), in order to utilize the rest of the EB-2 visa numbers that were unused by the WW categories.  This will indeed be very positive news.

 

EB-3 Worldwide:

  • Demand is increasing, thus, it is unlikely in the short run that the category will move forward. In fact, if current demand continues, retrogression is likely as early as June 2014 to slow the demand in this category.

EB-3 China:

  • There has been high demand in this category due to downgrading from EB-2 to EB-3.  Indeed a correction by way of a six year move backwards has already occurred (June Visa Bulletin).

 

EB-5 China:

A cutoff date for China EB-5 may occur for the first time during the summer of 2015, with a May 2013 cut-off date.  Retrogression is inevitable as there are over 7,000 I-526 applications pending, with over 80% by Chinese applicants.